Well, no good argument can proceed without a graph, and by coincidence, this talk had a graph too. I drew the graph in stages, so I'll just have to explain textually and hope for the best...
The first line that I drew was the flat horizontal, and that represented the number of students that enter computer science/computer networking programs in college.
Next, I added the exponential type curve labeled "network scientists/engineers", representing the demand for people to fill these positions.
Thirdly, it follows that if supply of incoming students is flat and demand for said students increases above demand, the number of students graduating with a Masters degree will fall to zero around 2004 (probably around February 3rd by my model). That's the line labeled MS (which looks more like NS).
Fourth, as the supply of Masters students is siphoned off to fulfill the needs of industry, the number of students that work on a Ph. D. will also fall to zero (around 2002; again, the mathematical details are beyond the scope of this talk!)
The last line that I drew is the "hump backed" line that peaks around 2002 and then falls quickly to zero around 2006. I said that I was worried that some of the people in the audience were not properly shocked by the obvious accuracy of my predication. That last line was dedicated to the folks that I shared nice lunches with on the first two days of the conference. They were all nice industry folks, and the first few minutes of the lunchtime conversations were about technology and technical issues. The conversations then invariably turned to company stock options, how much their stock was up and how things were really looking up financially. As an academic type, I appreciate the importance of these things, but the only "stock" at Ohio University has 2 feet, tennis shoes, and lines up at my door during office hours. Where was I, oh yea, I said that last line represented the combined value of the stock of Microsoft and Cisco.
I pressed forward, secure in the belief that now everybody appreciated
the gravity of the situation.
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Introduction  Slide 1  Slide 2  Slide 3  Slide 4  Slide 5  Slide 6  Conclusions 
© 1998 Shawn Ostermann All Rights Reserved. 